02/22/2012

The Unseen Hand: Fed Policy and Inflation

Federal Reserve International PolicyThere was quite a rally this week in the US stock market. On the last day of November, the DJIA rose over 480 points in one of the 7 largest gains in Dow history.

The “reason” for this gain seemed to be an overnight agreement by the European Central banks to ease the strains on European banks by easing credit in unison. Coincidentally, China reduced its reserve rate, freeing up more capital from the East.

Because Europe is in such a funk, money markets in the US and other dollar denominated markets had reduced lending to European banks by 50 to 70 percent recently.

So those “stress tested” European banks were all faltering on the brink and something had to be done.

Enter the unseen hand of Federal Reserve Policy, your tax dollars, inflation, and the destruction of the American dollar’s international value at work. The Feds low key status in this announcement is a ruse, this was an internationally coordinated, US led, emergency bailout of the European banks.

The joint offer of cut-rate currency swap lines by the central banks of the US, Britain, Japan, Canada, Switzerland and the ECB preserves the polite fiction that this was to “ease strains in financial markets and thereby mitigate the effects of such strains on the supply of credit”, but this was a Fed action to provide cheap dollar funding and head off a lethal crunch in Europe.  More

What does it mean to Americans…?

  • Many European Banks are broke
  • Some European Countries are broke
  • The European Central Bank (ECB) is paralyzed because members won’t agree
  • The ECB can’t get the viable (Germany) countries to pay for the sins of the spendthrift (Greece, Italy, Ireland, Spain, and soon France) countries
  • There is no political will for some European countries to continue to bail out other countries
  • All of the politicians want someone else to pay for their spending
  • The US is already broke and things will deteriorate over the next few years (bank failures, rioting, further decrease in the value of the dollar, destruction of our standard of living)

What is the solution?

  • The European Sovereigns are in trouble
  • The European Banks are in trouble
  • The ECB is paralyzed
  • The ECB is hoping the IMF will bail it out
  • The IMF is almost broke and needs the US and China to bail it out
  • Since Europe’s combined economies are as large as the US, there is no one left to bailout Europe except the US and China

Because everyone plays in dollars, the US can only support Europe by more printing causing dollar devaluation and inflation

  • More debt everywhere
  • No increase in lending
  • Worldwide inflation
  • Destruction of the value of the dollar

What’s beyond that?

  • More borrowing, bailouts, stagnation, political turmoil, and pain
  • Bank defaults and finally, Sovereign debt defaults
  • The proposal for a non-dollar dependent “world” currency

All brought to you by the US Federal Reserve.

 

 

Obama’s American Jobs Act – he just doesn’t get it!

Barack ObamaTry as I may to back the President (after all, I voted for him),  I just can’t believe that after this amount of time in office, he still has no clue as to how to stimulate the economy and create long-term jobs. Last night’s “jobs plan” was a watered down rehash of his early fiscal stimulus plan which would do nothing to create new permanent jobs.

His $447 billion “jobs plan” was nothing more than a “feel good re-election campaign kickoff fund” to be paid by the tax payers on borrowed money.  To anyone who doubts this, just follow his travel over the next few months as he “promotes” his plan. It is a thinly veiled campaign tour paid by credit at the taxpayer’s expense. He will use the tour to criticize Republicans incessantly.

Maybe it’s not his fault. Maybe it’s due to the academics and lackeys that surround him, but last evening’s speech to the joint session of Congress was a total disaster. Even First Lady Michelle Obama looked noticeably distraught during the presentation (although we have yet to see any reporting on this).

Borrow and spend, repeat.

His expressionless cabinet looked like they were watching a fool.  They didn’t see leadership, knowledge, or commitment. They saw desperation as the President barked out new spins of old ideas. He quoted other Presidents and acted angry, but said nothing notable himself. He began by saying all of this would be paid for, but ended with no details on how. Borrow and spend, repeat.

The President kept saying that Republicans voted for this and that in some weak attempt to convince us that these are reasonable ideas or put pressure on the Republican members to support this plan. Really? Is that the best you have Mr. President?

Well, lets look at the plan:

Academic and Keynesian “old thinking” influence

  • Build infrastructure – like FDR did – a textbook example
  • Put money into people’s hands via tax cuts and they’ll spend it to stimulate the economy – another textbook example

The problem with these approaches are twofold:

  1. Both approaches are temporary and transitory. That is, once the money runs out, the “jobs” effect stops. See the last “stimulus plan” for an example. The temporary tax rebates are ineffective. No one can plan on receiving these in the future, so they are used as a one time “perk,” not to upgrade a home or purchase a car.
  2. Both approaches temporarily put money into people’s pockets but do not address the fact that our economy has changed since FDR’s time. We don’t buy American made goods for the most part. Tax rebates and temporary job pay are spent on computers, TVs, or to pay down consumer debt. This helps out China manufacturers and the banks, but does nothing for creating new jobs in the USA. Retailers won’t hire permanent employees because they sold a few more TVs or laptops this year.

Unions

We know Obama is pandering to the unions and trying to appease them for their support in the next election, but his latest proposal is just another blatant attempt direct your “borrowed” money to unions.

  • Money for public works projects = union pocketbooks
  • Money for teachers = union pocketbooks
  • Money for local and state governments = union pocketbooks
  • Infrastructure Bank = another huge government bureaucracy filled with unionized civil servants.

What about you and me? If we’re not in a union, where is our job plan?

Infrastructure Bank

The President proposed yet another new Washington based government SPENDING agency. (As if Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac weren’t losing enough money). I’m sure the voters in Philadelphia, Cleveland, Phoenix and Sacramento are just jumping for joy about borrowing more money to pay for this.

Payroll Tax Cuts and Personal Tax Cuts

This is the biggest problem with today’s Keynesian economists as well as the President’s plan. While we all agree that PERMANENT tax cuts are good and will help stimulate the economy and jobs, the fact is that TEMPORARY tax cuts do nothing for job growth.

Most politicians and academics can’t understand this simple fact. Maybe because they have no business experience or they’ve never done a 5 year business plan. They just don’t know what motivates businesses.

No business will make an investment or hire people based upon a tax cut which may expire in a year or two. Imagine a 5 year business plan that shows profitability in year 1, but no plan for profits in years 2 through 5. Who would borrow money and invest in this plan? Would you?

Likewise, no individual will make a long-term purchasing commitment based upon a rebate that may or may not arrive next year. They won’t buy a new car or a new home on payments without a reasonable expectation of receiving that money for many, many years. Common sense.

Wrap up: Economic Suicide

Perhaps the best description of the President’s latest plan came from David Stockman, former director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan.

“This should scare the living daylights out of investors–it’s just more Keynesian poison,” said Stockman. “The money will go through the economy in a flash and leave nothing behind except a half-trillion dollars of more debt to our children.”

I was actually cheering for the President and hopeful that this speech would help our country economically, but I am truly amazed that this is the best plan he could muster.

President Obama is staring into an economic abyss and his best plan after 3 years is to spend more borrowed money on outdated and ineffective policies to save us. Worst than that, most of these same elements were in his $900 billion “stimulus plan” which did not work.

The President needs some new advisors and new ideas, and he needs them fast.